In 2025, North Macedonia finds itself at a delicate political crossroads. Once celebrated as a model of democratic transition and regional stability, the small Balkan nation is now navigating through a period of uncertainty, polarization, and slow reform. The country’s European Union (EU) integration process, once a unifying national goal, has become entangled in identity politics, party rivalries, and regional pressures — leaving citizens frustrated and institutions under strain.
From Hope to Stagnation: A Brief Political Context
For much of the past decade, North Macedonia’s political story has been one of aspiration and struggle. Following the resolution of its decades-long naming dispute with Greece in 2018 — through the Prespa Agreement, which officially changed the country’s name from “Macedonia” to “North Macedonia” — the country was hailed internationally as a symbol of courage and compromise in the Western Balkans.
The deal opened the door for NATO membership (achieved in 2020) and was expected to accelerate EU accession talks. However, optimism quickly faded. A new veto, this time from Bulgaria, stalled the EU negotiation process, citing disputes over history, language, and cultural heritage. For many Macedonians, this was a bitter reminder that political goodwill abroad does not always translate into progress at home.
The Political Divide: SDSM vs. VMRO-DPMNE
Domestically, the political landscape remains deeply polarized between the two major blocs: the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) and the VMRO-DPMNE.
The SDSM, led by Dimitar Kovačevski, came to power in 2022 after the resignation of former Prime Minister Zoran Zaev. The government positioned itself as pro-European, reformist, and focused on maintaining good relations with neighbors. However, it has struggled with declining public trust, accusations of inefficiency, and frustration over slow EU progress.
Meanwhile, VMRO-DPMNE, the main opposition party led by Hristijan Mickoski, has regained significant momentum. The party has capitalized on growing disillusionment among citizens, portraying itself as the defender of national dignity against what it calls “foreign-imposed compromises.” Mickoski’s rhetoric — critical of the Prespa Agreement and the concessions made to Bulgaria — has resonated with voters who feel that national identity is being undermined in exchange for vague EU promises.
As of late 2025, polls suggest that VMRO-DPMNE is leading ahead of the next parliamentary elections expected in 2026, but its potential return to power raises questions about the future of the country’s European orientation.
The Ethnic Balance and the Role of Albanian Parties
North Macedonia’s political stability has long depended on its multiethnic equilibrium. Ethnic Albanians make up about 25% of the population, and their inclusion in governance remains critical for the country’s cohesion.
The Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), led by Ali Ahmeti, has been a kingmaker in nearly every government since 2002. It has maintained a pragmatic stance, supporting EU and NATO integration and serving as a stabilizing force between the Macedonian majority and Albanian minority. However, in recent years, DUI has faced internal challenges and new competition from younger, reform-minded Albanian parties such as Alternativa and BESA, as well as Vredi (Worth) — a newly consolidated opposition movement within the Albanian political spectrum.
This fragmentation has slightly altered the balance of power, with Albanian voters demanding more accountability, transparency, and economic opportunities rather than relying solely on ethnic representation.
Economic and Social Pressures
Beyond political maneuvering, ordinary citizens are grappling with pressing economic issues. Inflation, low wages, and a high emigration rate have eroded living standards and public confidence. Young people, in particular, are leaving the country at alarming rates in search of better opportunities in Western Europe.
Despite modest GDP growth, foreign investment remains limited due to bureaucratic obstacles, weak judicial independence, and corruption. Public administration reforms have been slow, and political appointments continue to dominate state institutions. The fight against corruption — a key EU demand — has yielded limited tangible results, with major scandals frequently resurfacing in both ruling and opposition circles.
Civil society groups and independent media continue to play a vital role in exposing abuses of power, but they face increasing political pressure and financial instability. Freedom of the press, while generally respected, has shown signs of decline due to self-censorship and partisan media ownership.
EU Integration: The Moving Goalpost
North Macedonia’s EU integration process has become a test of endurance rather than progress. After years of delay, the country formally opened accession talks in July 2022, but the negotiations remain largely symbolic. Bulgaria’s demands — including constitutional amendments to recognize ethnic Bulgarians as a minority in the constitution — have sparked heated debates in Skopje.
The government reluctantly agreed to begin the constitutional process, arguing that it was a necessary compromise to keep EU talks alive. Yet, the move triggered mass protests organized by the opposition, which accused the government of “selling out” the nation’s identity.
This tension has left many Macedonians questioning whether EU membership is worth the repeated concessions and internal divisions. For Brussels, North Macedonia’s progress is still viewed as a key test of the EU’s credibility in the Western Balkans. For Skopje, however, the constant delays risk fueling Euroscepticism and strengthening nationalist narratives.
Regional Dynamics and External Influence
Like other Western Balkan states, North Macedonia is caught between competing influences. While it maintains strong partnerships with the EU and NATO, both Russia and China have sought to expand their presence in the region.
Moscow’s propaganda machinery continues to exploit anti-Western sentiment, particularly among nationalist circles, portraying the EU as an unreliable partner and NATO as a threat to sovereignty. Meanwhile, Chinese investments — primarily through infrastructure projects — have provided short-term economic gains but raised concerns about long-term dependency and transparency.
Amid this shifting landscape, the United States remains a key strategic ally. Washington views North Macedonia as an anchor of stability in the Balkans and continues to encourage democratic reforms and Euro-Atlantic alignment.
The Road Ahead: Uncertain but Vital
North Macedonia’s political future will depend largely on whether its leaders can restore public trust, strengthen institutions, and deliver tangible progress toward EU integration. The country’s strategic importance — geographically and politically — makes its stability essential for the broader Western Balkan region.
If Skopje manages to pass the constitutional amendments and maintain a steady reform pace, it could unlock new momentum in its accession process. But failure to do so would risk reversing years of progress and deepening internal divisions.
For now, the nation remains suspended between aspiration and fatigue — a country that has done much to prove its European identity but still waits for Europe to open the door fully. As North Macedonia approaches the next election cycle, one truth is clear: the promise of a European future still defines its politics, even as the path to achieving it grows ever more uncertain.
